Florida Redistricting and Congressional Districts

This winter, the Florida legislature is expected to pass new state legislative and congressional district maps. The purpose of this process is to account for population changes that have occurred over the past decade as measured by recently released 2020 Census data. The population changes in Florida have been substantial: the state grew from 18,801,310 to 21,538,187 people between 2010 and 2020. While the nation saw a 7.4 percent increase in its population during that period, Florida’s rate of growth was nearly double that, at 14.6 percent. As a result, it is one of the few states to gain congressional representation for the coming decade.

As in the 2011 redistricting cycle, Republican lawmakers will have total control over the redistricting process. But unlike many states, Florida has safeguards written into state law that go beyond the protections of the U.S. Constitution and the federal Voting Rights Act. The state constitution, for example, prohibits maps that discriminate against racial and ethnic minorities and bans intentional partisan gerrymandering. During the past decade, the Florida Supreme Court enforced these protections and redrew several congressional and state legislative districts. However, the membership of the court has changed significantly since then, creating uncertainty as to whether challenges to unfair maps will be successful this time around.

Thus, Florida’s 120 state house, 40 state senate, and 28 congressional districts are bring drawn under single-party control and assessed by a state supreme court bench with no history of enforcing the state’s protections. This analysis summarizes Florida’s major population trends of the last decade, both statewide and in its fastest-growing metro areas, and examines their redistricting implications.

Highlights:

• Nonwhite Floridians accounted for over 90 percent of the 2,736,877 people the state added to its population in the last decade, thanks largely to an increase in the Latino population.

• Central Florida’s I-4 corridor, especially the areas surrounding Orlando and Tampa, saw the greatest growth, meaning that it could be the landing spot for Florida’s new congressional district. Other urban areas, including Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville, also saw considerable increases in their populations.

Statewide Analysis

Between 2010 and 2020, Florida gained almost 3 million residents, more than any other state besides Texas.¹ While Florida enjoyed significant growth statewide, the Miami, Orlando, and Tampa metro areas saw the greatest increases. According to 2019 estimates, domestic in-migration and international immigration accounted for almost 90 percent of this population increase, with more people moving to Florida than any other state in the country.² Notably, Florida has seen a 44 percent increase in its Puerto Rican population over the past decade, in no small part due to migration after Hurricane Maria devastated the island in 2017.³

The state’s growth was not distributed evenly across demographic groups. Though Florida saw a substantial increase in its population, these gains were driven by nonwhite residents. While Florida’s white population grew by 215,781 people, nonwhite communities added 2,521,096 people to their totals, representing roughly 90 percent of overall population growth. Thus, Florida’s white population, while still a majority, saw its share of the total population decline from 58 to 52 percent.

Multiracial Floridians grew by a greater percentage than any single racial or ethnic group, increasing by 501,129 people, or 172 percent, since 2010.⁴ Latino Floridians increased their total by 1,473,434 people, the largest absolute gain of any demographic group. The Asian population saw the largest percentage increase of any single racial or ethnic group in the last decade, growing by 184,410 people, or 41 percent. The changes in Florida’s citizen voting age population, which is often used as a stand-in for measuring the population of eligible voters, largely mirror statewide population trends.⁵

Geographically, Florida’s population growth was centered in and around its major cities. Overall, the state’s population gains were evenly split among its largest metro areas. Orange County, home to Orlando, saw the biggest gains, adding 283,952 people and accounting for more than 10 percent of the state’s population growth. Likewise, Miami-Dade County and Tampa’s Hillsborough County each contributed more than 7 percent of overall gains. Jacksonville’s Duval County saw more modest numbers, adding 131,304 people and accounting for about 5 percent of the state’s increases. While most of Florida’s counties saw their population rise, at least modestly, 17 counties, largely concentrated in northern Florida, experienced population decline.

Given these changes, central Florida should see additional representation because of its strong growth relative to other regions of the state. The seven counties in central Florida’s I-4 corridor, which include the Tampa and Orlando metro areas, now have the population to support nearly three additional state house districts, an additional state senate district, and an additional congressional district.⁶ How these districts are drawn will determine which communities will wield greater political power in Tallahassee and Washington for the next decade

Regional Analysis

An analysis of Florida’s three largest metro areas illustrates the wider demographic changes that have occurred across the state over the past decade. Orange County and Hillsborough County had the largest population increases in the state, growing by 283,952 people and 230,536 people, respectively. Osceola County, adjacent to Orange County, saw the greatest percentage increase in population of any county since 2010, growing by 45 percent. Similar to statewide trends, the growth in central Florida’s largest metro areas was driven by the increase in the nonwhite population, which accounted for almost 100 percent of the gains in Hillsborough, Orange, and Osceola Counties. The maps below show how nonwhite populations increased in the counties’ more suburban areas.

In Hillsborough and Orange Counties, over 50 percent of the past decade’s population growth can be attributed to Latinos, and in Osceola County the figure is almost 75 percent. Despite the massive growth of the Latino population, legislators may still draw districts that dilute their political power. For example, majority-nonwhite areas in the region could be consolidated into relatively few districts, giving more power to older, whiter areas such as the Villages, a retirement community in nearby Sumter County that has become whiter over the past decade and was also the fastest-growing municipality in the country.⁷

Much of the increase in Latino communities in central Florida can be attributed to the growth of the Puerto Rican population, especially in metro Orlando. In Orange and Osceola Counties, people of Puerto Rican descent make up the largest share of the Latino population.⁸ As of 2019, nearly 1 in 10 people living in Orange and Osceola Counties were born in Puerto Rico.⁹

These increases are already affecting the political landscape, not just in central Florida but in the country at large. In 2016, Democrat Darren Soto of Orlando became the first Puerto Rican to represent Florida in Congress. Soto has become a strong advocate for Puerto Rican statehood, putting pressure on Democrats and Republicans alike.¹⁰ Advocacy organizations in Florida are also capitalizing on the growth of the Puerto Rican population to reenergize a campaign for statehood.¹¹ As people of Puerto Rican descent exercise their growing political power in central Florida, statehood is likely to receive more attention, especially if a new central Florida congressional district strengthens the Puerto Rican population’s political influence in Washington.

The nonwhite population also increased in Miami-Dade County over the past decade. The share of the nonwhite population there grew from 85 percent to 87 percent. Though the increase may seem negligible, it underscore the evolution of suburban communities.

Between 2010 and 2020, Miami-Dade’s white population decreased by over 20,000 people, shrinking from 15 percent of the population to 13 percent. There was an even greater decrease in the county’s Black population, which shrank by 46,894 people, from 17 percent of the population to 11 percent. The Latino population not only compensated for these losses but accounted for all of Miami-Dade’s growth over the last decade.

The majority of Miami-Dade’s Latino population is of Cuban descent. In 2019, 53 percent of Latinos in Miami-Dade County and 36 percent of all county residents identified as Cuban. This is by far the largest subgroup among Latinos in Miami-Dade County — the next largest subgroup, those of Nicaraguan descent, made up only 6 percent of the county’s Latino population and 4 percent of its overall population.¹²

The size and consistently high voter turnout of Miami-Dade’s Cuban population underscores its importance in elections. Unlike many other Latino subgroups, Latinos of Cuban descent lean Republican, though this has lessened somewhat in recent years.¹³ In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump lost Miami-Dade County by almost 300,000 votes, and in 2018 Democrats flipped two Miami-Dade House seats. But by 2020, Trump made some electoral gains with Cuban voters across the county, contributing to his win in Florida.¹⁴

The shifting political landscape in southern Florida adds complexity to a state that has long been a critical battleground. In redistricting, the differences among Latino subgroups’ political leanings may impact how maps are drawn. Republican legislators may want to increase the power of Miami-Dade’s Cuban population and dilute the power of central Florida’s Puerto Rican population despite its significant growth. These decisions could be the subject of future litigation and will have significant ramifications in Tallahassee and Washington.

Conclusion

Florida’s demographic changes over the past decade show that the state is quickly growing and diversifying. Whether the redistricting process accounts for this change, especially as the state gains a congressional district, will be crucial to understanding the electoral landscape in Florida.