Since 1990, increased incarceration had a limited impact on reducing crime nationwide, concludes a new report from the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law. In What Caused the Crime Decline?, a team of economic and criminal justice researchers examine over 40 years of data, gathered from 50 states and the 50 largest cities.
The report offers a close look at Florida, finding that the state’s incarceration rate was 38 percent higher than the national average by 2010. As of 2013, Florida imprisoned 527 people per 100,000, compared to 496 for the U.S. Today, the Sunshine State has the third-largest correctional system in the nation, after California and Texas. Florida spent $2.316 billion on state corrections in 2013. Due to “truth in sentencing” legislation passed in 1995, most Florida prisoners must serve a minimum of 85 percent of their sentences before release. Florida, like most states, also has “three strikes” legislation and a “10–20-life” law, which established mandatory minimum sentences for crimes involving firearms.
The Center will host a briefing call today at 1 p.m. ET to discuss the report’s findings. Dial In information: 1–800–514–0831; Confirmation Number: 38955210
Nationwide and Florida-specific findings are summarized below:
- Crime: Crime across the United States has steadily declined over the last two decades. Crime in Florida dropped by 60 percent from its height in 1988 to 2013. And the national crime rate was cut in half.
- Incarceration: Increased incarceration has been declining in its effectiveness as a crime control tactic for more than 30 years. It had some effect, likely in the range of 0 to 10 percent, on reducing crime in the 1990s. Since 2000, however, increased incarceration had a negligible effect on crime. In Florida, the effectiveness of increased incarceration reached a level that was effectively zero by 2002. A number of states, including California, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Texas, have successfully reduced their prison populations while crime continues to fall.
- Other Factors: Increased numbers of police officers, some data-driven policing techniques, changes in income, decreased alcohol consumption, and an aging population played a role in the crime decline. In particular, the report finds CompStat is associated with a 5 to 15 percent decrease in crime. In Florida, CompStat was introduced in Jacksonville and Miami. The report also includes new information on the effects of unemployment, the death penalty, and other theories on crime.
“Some have argued that despite the immense social and fiscal costs of America’s mass incarceration system, it has succeeded at reducing crime,” said report co-author Oliver Roeder. “But the data tells a different story: if reducing crime is the end goal of our criminal justice system, increased incarceration is a poor investment.”
“This report amplifies what many on the left and right have come to realize in recent years: mass incarceration isn’t working,” said Inimai Chettiar, director of the Brennan Center’s Justice Program. “A better use of resources would be improving economic opportunities, supporting 21st century policing practices, and expanding treatment and rehabilitation programs, all of which have proven records of reducing crime, without incarceration’s high costs.”
“This groundbreaking empirical analysis from the Brennan Center shows that, on examination, the easy answers do not explain incarceration’s effect on crime,” wrote Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University, in the Foreword. “This report presents a rigorous and sophisticated empirical analysis performed on the most recent, comprehensive dataset to date.”
“Criminal justice reform in Florida has been slow to arrive,” said Lauren-Brooke Eisen, co-author of the report. “In July 2014, legislation to eliminate mandatory minimums for some low-level drug offenders became law. But, without additional major reforms, Florida will continue to suffer from high rates of recidivism, probation violations, and juveniles graduating to the adult criminal justice system. Further reforms to reduce Florida’s prison population should be prioritized and this report demonstrates that reduction can be achieved without added crime.”
Click here to read the full report, What Caused the Crime Decline?
Read about the crime decline in California, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia.
Click here to read more about the Brennan Center’s work to improve the criminal justice system.
For more information or to speak with an expert, contact Naren Daniel at (646) 292–8381 or naren.daniel@nyu.edu.