Voters in Virginia on Tuesday approved a state constitutional amendment to enact new congressional maps that favor Democratic candidates in the 2026 midterms. The result has led to a predictably wide array of reactions, ranging from total despair and recriminations from Republicans who had cheered when Texas started this unprecedented mid-decade redistricting spree to jubilation from Democrats seeking to strike back.
For the American public, it’s another chapter demonstrating the damage that follows when partisan gerrymandering stands unregulated in our system.
While early returns on Tuesday suggested that this contest might be a close one, the pattern that emerged in northern Virginia, home to many former federal workers fired by this administration, set the stage for a solid margin of victory for supporters of the new maps. While turnout fell compared to the 2025 Democratic landslide election for governor, the final statewide tally closely tracked the closer contest for attorney general, which Democrats also won.
Assuming that the remaining legal disputes before Virginia courts resolves quickly — which is likely since the Virginia Supreme Court twice declined to intervene before the election — the newly gerrymandered map will likely shift the state’s congressional delegation from 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans to 10 Democrats and 1 Republican. The big question now is what happens next.
In Virginia, we’ll soon see candidates on the Democratic side declaring their intention to run in the newly configured districts. For their part, Republicans have some tough decisions to make, as the new map now has only one solidly red seat, and it spans territory with multiple incumbents. The choice for GOP candidates now is: Fight your way through a packed Republican primary or take your chances in a district that is, at best, tilted against your party. In an environment where the Republican president has approval numbers in rapid descent, the “10 f--—in’ 1” proclamation earlier this year by Virginia State Senate President Pro Tem Louise Lucas, a Democrat, has become the political equivalent of Joe Namath’s famous Super Bowl guarantee.
Virginia may not be the final round of redistricting in advance of the midterms, as, according to Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, Florida is readying for a special session on April 28 to address redistricting. Term-limited DeSantis seems ready to enter the fray, but reporting suggests that Republican legislators are not as eager. There are good reasons for their hesitation.
First, their efforts are unlikely to neutralize new seats Virginia added to the probable Democratic column. This is because Florida Republicans had already gerrymandered the state in 2021, blowing past several state laws that banned it. As a result, there is very little juice left to squeeze. Second, Virginia’s outcome adds to existing Republican worries that the political winds have shifted against them. The Florida state legislative seat that includes the Trump-owned Mar-a-Lago is among the recent string of Republican special election losses. Stretching already thin GOP margins with yet another gerrymander would make a larger share of their congressional delegation vulnerable to a blue wave in November. In a changing political environment, there is good reason to avoid adding to the uncertainty.
