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Redistricting

Accounting for the Census Clause

In the inaccurately titled opinion piece ("Our Unconstitutional Census") published on August 9 in the Wall Street Journal, Messrs. Baker and Stonecipher, a constitutional law professor and pollster respectively, falsely claim that the current practice of counting undocumented persons in the census for the purpose of apportionment is unconstitutional.  

The "Census clause" or sometimes called the "Enumeration clause" is found in Article I, 1, § 2, cl. 3 of Constitution.  After taking into account the removal and additions that have occurred with later amendments, that clause reads as follows:  "Representatives . . . shall be apportioned among the several States . . . according to their respective Numbers . . . . The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct."  Further, Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment states that "Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed."   

The Constitution uses the word "numbers" or "persons" -- not "citizens," or "legal residents," or "those lawfully present" as the authors suggest.  Moreover, the Constitution wholly and explicitly empowers Congress to sort out the details.  The express delegation of the responsibility to Congress makes it odd that part of their opinion piece casts Congress fulfilling its constitutional obligations to make the policy determinations guiding the census as a bad thing.   

In a move that is sure to irk "strict constructionists" the authors ignore the plain text of the Constitution and cite enabling legislation for support, arguing that the name of first census act used the word "inhabitant" and that the contemporaneous definition of that word were persons entitled to the privileges conferred by the state, which would exclude unlawful residents.  The word "inhabitant," is not used in the Constitution's Census clause, but is instead used when describing qualifications of Representatives and Senators.  In the Qualification clauses, the word "inhabitant" probably fairly means what the authors say it means.  But, it is improper for the authors to import a word from other sections of the Constitution into a clause where the framers deliberate and purposely omitted that word and claim that the word is controlling. 

Even if Congressional understanding of the Constitution trumps its plain text, the first census act actually suggests reaching a contrary conclusion because that act counted slaves and non-white free persons.  It required the district marshals to swear or affirm an oath that they would undertake a "just and perfect enumeration and description of all persons resident within my district."  Those facts mean that Congress at least had a more expansive view of "inhabitants" than the authors would allow, and as the Constitution indicates, Congress gets to make the call as to the details. 

The authors invoke the Wesberry v. Sanders principle that there should be rough equivalents of voting citizens in state legislative districts.  Justice Rehnquist, however, in an opinion in the mid-90s rejected the application of the Wesberry principle to Congress when conducting the census.  He also noted that the Court had reached the same conclusion on two prior occasions because of the latitude given to Congress under the Constitution and because the districts at issue in Wesberry were intra-state, but federal apportionment required interstate review which could not be done with the same precision.  Even the Supreme Court disagrees with the authors.   

There are good policy reasons for including all residents in a state when conducting apportionment.  A district's representation affects everyone in the district; moreover a district's representation is impacted by everyone in the district.   

The authors may disagree that apportionments should be influenced by enumerations of undocumented persons, but it is false that the current practice of doing so is unconstitutional.

Tags: Democracy, Redistricting

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Drawing the Lines in Ohio: A Big Step Forward

Last week, Ohio voters got a glimmer of hope for fixing a badly broken redistricting process. 

In most states, legislators get together every ten years, and carve state territory up into districts of voters, more or less as they please.  It's no surprise that "self-regarding interest is predominant over social interest": most of the time, the legislators draw the lines to benefit themselves and their colleagues, often at the expense of voters in real communities.  Neighborhoods are split, competing politicians are drawn out of contention, groups of citizens are cracked or packed or tacked to break up or overconsolidate voting power.  We like to think that voters choose their politicians-but in the redistricting process, politicians choose their voters. 

The existing system for drawing Ohio's state legislative districts is a bit different than the norm, but suffers from many of the same problems.  (For Ohio congressional districts, the process is the same as the national norm, and just as broken.)  Instead of letting individual legislators tweak their own districts, the state assigns the redistricting process to a five-person commission: the Governor, the State Auditor, the Secretary of State, one person chosen by the Republican legislative leadership, and one person chosen by the Democratic legislative leadership.   

This structure gives substantial power to party leadership and statewide elected officials.  And because of the commission's setup, one party is always in complete control of drawing the lines.  That makes it even easier in Ohio for one party to bend the process to its own designs.  In the 1970s and 1980s, Democrats won; in the 1990s and 2000s, Republicans won.  And for four decades, real Buckeyes of all stripes lost.  

Last week, an impressive partnership led by Ohio's Secretary of State, three respected nonpartisan nonprofit organizations, political scientists, and current and former legislators showed that there is a better way.  The group set up an open process, inviting members of the public to draw district maps according to a set of carefully negotiated rules, and then equipped participants with the data and the tools to put pen to paper.  The results were announced on Thursday - and on most every metric, the plans that were submitted served Ohio voters far better than the real districts that have partitioned the state for the last ten years.  

The Secretary's process was a demonstration, not a legal change to the real-life districts, but that does not mean that it was just an intellectual exercise.  As Heather Gerken has discussed (and discussed and discussed and discussed), with plenty of persuasive seconds, these sorts of model institutional initiatives have real-world merit.  They provide a solid baseline: a means for the public, legislators, and even courts to gauge what equitable redistricting might look like, rather than arguing about abstract principles with no concrete foothold. They offer constituents and media a tool to shame legislators into better performance, or at least into justifying their decision to depart from the coalition's vision.  And they demonstrate that procedural reform is not merely hypothetically possible, but pragmatically achievable, with tangible results.  In the context of a ballot initiative or a reform bill from within the legislature, prospects of success get a lot better with the ability to point to a model that has actually worked. 

The particular process that wrapped up last week in Ohio wasn't perfect; I've got a few quibbles with the details, which I've laid out in these other posts.  But those concerns shouldn't obscure the substantial significance of the process overall. 

The Secretary's model showed that it's possible to open up the redistricting process by giving members of the public the data and computer technology to draw and submit their own proposed plans. 

The Secretary's model showed that it's possible to balance multiple, occasionally competing, objectives in drawing districts. 

The Secretary's model showed that it's possible to improve the status quo with a few carefully tailored constraints that still retain a "human touch in choosing among the best plans." 

And the Secretary's model showed that it's possible to build a process for selecting public servants that actually serves the public. 

Which is likely the most important lesson of all.

Tags: Redistricting

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Drawing the Lines in Ohio: The Structure of the Competition

In an earlier post, I praised a recent Ohio project giving citizens the tools to draw their own congressional district maps according to a set of carefully negotiated rules.  The exercise was particularly valuable in demonstrating that reform is possible - and in demonstrating the degree of improvement that reform might achieve. 

The rules for the exercise were straightforward.  Moreover, they reflect a set of very sophisticated choices, even when simplified to be accessible to the general public.   

They began with a solid threshold: a proposed plan would be tossed if it didn't live up to the two basic redistricting requirements of federal law.  The first is the U.S. Constitution, which requires that each district have about the same population.  The second is the Voting Rights Act, which keeps district lines from fragmenting substantial minority populations to dilute their voting power.  So far, so good. 

In addition to these two basic rules, there are many other objectives that people try to satisfy when they draw district lines, some of which are at odds with each other.  One reform strategy is to lock in rigid priorities: first, do X; then, if it doesn't conflict with X, do Y.  Another strategy is to punt: choose trusted decisionmakers, throw in a bunch of different goals, and let the decisionmakers work out which is more important.  The Ohio project chose still a different path, and it's an intriguing way to acknowledge and resolve the tension of multiple objectives.   

The organizers chose four second-tier goals: community preservation, compactness, competitiveness, and partisan fairness (more about these, individually, here.  They developed quantitative scales to evaluate plans based on each goal, and weighted the goals by relative importance.  They then encouraged members of the public to find their own optimal balance among the goals, scoring each plan as it came in.  Some plans, say, aimed more for compactness than competitiveness, or vice versa.  But each effort to balance the competing goals was aiming for a high overall score.  And notably, each offered an improvement on the status quo, which didn't satisfy any identified goal particularly well. 

As I explain here, I have some quibbles with some of the goals that were chosen, and with some of the particular means to measure progress toward those goals.  But the structure of the enterprise - an open competition - is noteworthy.  This isn't the first time that a competition has been proposed: Sam Hirsch, among others, has suggested such a thing.  But the Ohio exercise was a competition with an unusual - and very thoughtful - ending. 

I find it most impressive, given the temptation in any contest to crown an ultimate champion, that the organizers in Ohio refused to automate victory.  Rather than simply selecting the highest-scoring plan, any plan scoring in the top 25% was designated as a "winner."  In the real world, a trusted decisionmaking body would then have discretion to choose, from among those winners, the map most beneficial for Ohio voters overall.   

If you're going to have a competition, this is an extremely thoughtful approach, for two reasons.  First, it recognizes that even with clear scores, there may not be one clear "winner" (I owe a hat tip to Dan Goroff for this point).  If two redistricting goals are equally important, but in conflict, it's possible to have multiple winning plans with the same score - one sacrifices a bit of goal 1 to improve goal 2, and another does the opposite.  In the math and economics worlds, this is known as the "Pareto frontier" - a whole set of outcomes that all represent the best score in a competition like the one that Ohio set up.  By choosing the top 25%, the competition acknowledges that there might be a tie. 

Second, and probably more important, we know that the scoring system won't be perfect.  Even if it were possible to get perfect consensus on all of the goals of the redistricting process and their relative importance, translating that consensus to a mathematical score will involve a bit of noise.  Both the measurements and the weights are approximate at best.  Several of the traits being scored are just easily quantifiable proxies for elements of meaningful representation that are harder to measure.  And there may be other intangible goals that don't really have good proxies at all.   

In this respect, the quest for the "best" redistricting plan is like the quest for the "best" supermarket produce.  We'd want to take into account size, shelf life, cost, color, taste, and probably a bunch of other factors.  Size and shelf life and cost can be easily measured and scored.  There's a scale for color, but we might have different opinions about what "best" looks like, and it's going to be tough to score color blends.  And our measurements for taste are approximate at best.  If you're going to set up a competition for the "best" produce, you'd want the results to be flexible enough to account for imperfection in the measurements, to get at the produce that's near the quantifiable "Pareto frontier," but perhaps not precisely on it. 

So too with redistricting.  Some goals are easily measured, but for others, any measure we might devise is at best a near miss.  Since the score isn't a perfect translation of the intended outcome, the highest score shouldn't automatically win.  In Ohio, the rules promote the top quartile of high scoring plans - any of which improves on the status quo.  Then a decisionmaking body would take a look, to see if the number 4 plan actually serves Ohio voters better than the three plans with a higher numerical score. The decision to forego simply appointing a single winner works out to be a big win for everyone.

Tags: Redistricting

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Drawing the Lines in Ohio: The Devilish Details

In two earlier posts, I discussed the existence of a recent redistricting competition in Ohio, and its basic structure, and found much to praise.  The competition gave citizens the tools to draw their own congressional district maps according to a set of carefully negotiated rules.  After accounting for required federal law, the remaining rules represent policy choices.  Here, in the weeds, there may still be room for improvement before translating the model directly to real-world reform.   

Let's take a closer look at each of the four subsidiary goals that the Ohio competition built in to the process, and the means for measuring plans up against those goals.  (Each of these goals is examined in much more detail in A Citizen's Guide to Redistricting.) 

The first goal was preserving communities: giving voters with similar interests meaningful representation, by keeping them in the same district, rather than dividing them into groups too small for candidates to care about.  In my mind, after the "one-person, one-vote" and minority rights concerns of federal law, this is the single most important idea behind redistricting.  It's also one of the hardest to measure objectively.  

The Ohio competition used a common proxy: assume that a county represents a community, and then split counties as little as possible.  They also built in an important exception for cities like Columbus that cross county lines: because Columbus spills out of Franklin County into bits of Delaware and Fairfield Counties, it's OK to keep the bits of Columbus outside Franklin together with the bits inside Franklin, even if it means dividing some Delaware or Fairfield residents from others.  

The organizers described this rule as "opening a dialogue" about the means to measure communities, and I think that's exactly the right approach.  After the competition, the dialogue continued: the organizers looked at the results, and thought that it made sense to add an additional condition.  In some cases, getting equal population within each district makes splitting a county inevitable; when that happens, the lines should split municipal boundaries as little as possible.  That is, both counties and towns would be used as proxies for communities. 

That's a welcome step, but it should not be the end of the conversation.  There's a real opportunity to test how close the proxy comes to reality.  In the near future, we may be able to lay out community borders that are just as tangible as county lines, by aggregating lots of people's perceived community boundaries - but we're not quite there yet.  Short of that, some states offer public hearings on proposed redistricting plans, to let people articulate how a map would affect the communities to which they belong - but Ohio hasn't yet joined that club either.  So I'd urge the organizers of the Ohio exercise to fill in those blanks, soliciting public feedback on particular communities that cross county or city lines.  If there are few, the proxy works pretty well in Ohio.  If there are plenty, well, maybe the proxy needs adjusting.

The second goal was compactness: keeping districts close to regular geometric shapes so that they don't look "bizarre."  In my mind, this is one of the most accessible, but least useful, goals commonly cited in reform.  We have a common intuition that some districts look bizarre.  So what?  A district that's a perfect circle is compact, by most any measure.  So what?  Aesthetic appeal has little to do with the quality of representation.  Maryland and Michigan have "bizarre" boundaries, but voters in those states are not more poorly served because of the shape of their borders than are voters in the rectangles of Colorado or Wyoming.  And Illinois' fourth Congressional district is routinely cited as one of the most "contorted" in the country, but it gave Illinois its first majority-Hispanic district.  Whether a district is pretty doesn't tell me anything about what it's doing for the citizens within, or whether it fits the patterns of where people actually live.   

Most often, reformers seem to turn to compactness to limit legislators' self-interest.  Because we don't trust the people drawing the lines, we suspect that bizarre lines involve self-dealing, and we therefore look to geometric rules to try to smooth the lines out.  On its own, this is a legitimate concern and an understandable, if blunt, response.  Yet the Ohio competition's push to preserve counties and cities already limits the most unjustified spidery twists and turns.  In the absence of decisionmakers we trust, it may be worth contemplating a limited role for compactness within a county - if a county is to be split, there's a small reward for splitting it "nicely." But as a hedge against self-dealing, broader compactness formulas don't accomplish much that the community preservation goal above doesn't already handle better.  

Other reformers turn to compactness to help keep districts regional: voters in the south of the state are grouped with other southern voters, rather than with voters farther away.  This is a rough approximation of common interest, at best.  (For example, a district stretching along the Pacific may better represent voters with a common interest in that coastline than a regional district joining them with voters farther inland.)  Moreover, the compactness measure that the Ohio organizers chose (there are more than 30 options) doesn't fit this goal very well.  The Ohio competition's measure penalizes squiggly boundaries, which does little to stop spread, and punishes plans for following borders of less regular "communities" like Noble County or Columbus.  A better way to keep districts regional would focus on the extent to which a district stretches out from a central core, known in the trade as "dispersion." 

The third goal was competitiveness: creating districts where the voters are roughly half Democrats and half Republicans.  In part, this helps ensure that incumbents aren't insulated from losing if they're not responsive to their constituents ... though even in a district that's wildly skewed to one party or another, an unresponsive incumbent can be challenged in a primary.  More important, competitive districts set up an even playing field for the political parties as a whole, allowing legislative delegations to reflect changes in the partisan mood.  If a fair number of districts are roughly half Democrat and half Republican, a shift in the overall partisan preference can theoretically translate to a shift in the control of the legislature.   

It's worth noting, however, that because of candidates' name recognition, fundraising prowess, campaign skill, and a host of other issues, competitive districts often don't deliver competitive elections.  That is, you can still get a lopsided election from a 50-50 district.  When Ohio's current congressional districts were drawn in 2001, 7 were "generally" or "heavily" competitive, with a partisan spread of less than 55-45.  Yet in those districts' first elections, not one race was within 10 points, and the seven districts in question were won by an average of 65-35.   

The fourth goal was representational fairness, which measures the map as a whole rather than any individual district: a plan does better if the number of expected winners from each party is roughly in line with the total vote statewide.  So if the states' voters as a whole are 50-50, there should be the same number of districts leaning Republican as those that lean Democratic; if the state as a whole splits 70-30, so (more or less) should the state's legislative delegation.  Intuitively, this goal makes sense: a fair system should try to make sure that the representatives of the state, as a whole, reflect the state as a whole. 

The particular rule used in the competition has a curious twist, though: it cares whether a district is leaning Republican or leaning Democratic, but not by how much.  That is, districts leaning Republican by .04% get the same credit as districts leaning Republican by 40%, even though the former are much more likely to end up with Democratic representatives.  At the end of the day, by looking only at whether a district is theoretically on one side of the partisan divide or the other, plans that score quite well on "representational fairness" could end up predictably giving most of the legislative seats to the party that loses the statewide vote. And that hardly seems representationally fair. 

As the discussion above shows, there's a fair amount of tension between drawing districts that are individually competitive (nobody knows who wins which seats) and drawing districts to ensure representative fairness (Dems win X seats, Reps win Y seats).  And to the extent that voters with common interests tend to favor the same party, there's a lot of tension between drawing districts that preserve communities (mostly one party) and districts that are competitive (50-50).  Rob Richie has proposed a system of "accountability seats" to try to relieve these tensions, removing the need to move voters around in order to get the partisan mix just right.  The idea would allocate a few reserved legislative seats based on the statewide vote, to balance the legislative delegation so that it looks like the state as a whole. 

The "accountability seat" system could solve an awful lot of the current redistricting struggle, but it also represents a fairly big structural change.  Ohio's recent competition process represents a different innovative way to address goals that may be in conflict, by compromising a bit on each objective.  The critiques above - suggestions to give a goal more or less weight, or to change the nature of the measurement slightly - are quibbles on the margins, things to address now that the dialogue has been opened.  The partnership behind Ohio's latest endeavor deserves a strong vote of thanks for starting the conversation. 

Tags: Redistricting

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Barnyard Animals and Redistricting Reform

*Cross-posted from ReformNY 

Back in high school, my father coached my AAU basketball team- a hodgepodge of players who were just good enough to get invited to tournaments, where we would then get manhandled by teams with actual talent. We had very little size, but we played solid, scrappy defense. Unfortunately, we didn't get a lot of rebounds. This incensed my dad, whose primary coaching tool was screaming "BOX!" (as in "box out") as loudly as possible, whenever a shot would go up.

One day, after a particularly disappointing game, he told us the story of some barnyard animals who avoided all of the tasks necessary to prepare a meal for themselves, yet they still wanted to partake in the feast. The protagonist, Henny Penny, would ask them all "Who will pick the grain?" or "Who will knead the dough?", and animals like Lucy Goosey and Turkey Lurkey would summarily reply, "Not I!" Henny Penny was left to do all of the work, but, predictably, the other animals were more than happy to dig in once it was time to eat. The goal of the story was to point out our team's reluctance to do the grunt work that needed to be done (i.e, rebounding), even though all of us wanted to reap the rewards of victory.

Enter Assemblywoman Barbara Lifton. Her guest column on redistricting in the Ithaca Journal illustrates how Henny Penny and Turkey Lurkey are sometimes the same creature. The beginning of her piece is in the Henny Penny mold, presenting some important considerations and questions for redistricting reform, including compliance with Voting Rights Act, respecting communities of interest, etc.

But these considerations begin to sound more like excuses that undermine reform as the article goes on. For instance, Lifton wonders aloud whether we could find non-partisans "who would be willing to take on the complex task" of redrawing the boundaries for New York's Congressional and state legislative districts, even though 2.3 million New Yorkers are not registered to any political party. And she struggles to understand how an independent commission might be structured (as if one must be adopted out of whole cloth) ignoring the fact that such commissions already exist elsewhere. In short, it's as if she's premptively saying "Not I!", a la Turkey Lurkey.

In fairness, I have no trouble with being cautious on redistricting reform; we should be wary of recreating the current structure that keeps the power to draw district lines, in essence, with the legislature. Similarly, we must ensure that minority communities get a fair shake. However, those who are facilitating the discussion should, at the very least, present redistricting reform as an issue with obstacles and substantial benefits, not simply highlighting the negatives. Had Henny Penny pitched the work as back-breaking labor to produce a meal that was "pedestrian" or "lacking inspiration", the story wouldn't make any sense. Who's going to give up a day of frolicking on the farm for that?

The Brennan Center salutes any and all who support meaningful and effective redistricting reform, including Assemblywoman Lipton. But we hope said supporters are converting more of our state's Turkey Lurkeys into Henny Pennys, and not the other way around.

Tags: Democracy, NY Reform, Redistricting

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Hooray for…Albany?

The lights in Hollywood shine a little bit brighter on Oscar night, but who knew how much light they would cast on New York? Notwithstanding NY native Martin Scorcese’s victories for Best Picture and Best Director, several parallels can be drawn between the Academy Awards and New York’s political process. The state legislature, like the Academy, has voting practices viewed by outsiders as mysterious, if not secretive. Reform efforts have been ushered stage-right like an Oscar winner who’s thanked a few too many people in a rambling speech. And the incumbency advantage of elected officials combined with their control of redistricting ensures that, like the awards show, that though the outfits change in the legislature, the people wearing them rarely do.

Eileen Markey’s article in City Limits alludes to another parallel. The majority of our state's prisoners come from downstate (New York City), but virtually all the state's prisons are upstate. More importantly, those prisoners are counted as "residents" of upstate towns in the decennial census, but they are unable to vote. Thus, for the purposes of reapportionment and redistricting in NY, prisoners are like seat fillers at the Oscars: they give districts the appearance of being full, but they have absolutely no clout.

This practice has meaningful economic and political consequences. The resources diverted to districts upstate do little to aid prisoners, while the actual residents get a disproportionately large slice of the pie. In turn, less money is directed to downstate districts that already lack resources and support returning prisoners upon their release. Politically, this method has favored Republicans, who are heavily concentrated upstate. By allocating prisoners up north, redistricters respecting one-person/one-vote doctrine must create more districts upstate; these puffed-up districts have tended to elect GOP candidates.

There are simple ways to change New York’s method of counting prisoners. Some states simply do not count prisoners when redistricting. Others, including Sen. Eric Schneiderman have proposed creating a database with the last known addresses of prisoners, and counting them there. Either proposal would bring more fairness to the system and help end the current practice in NY which heaps insult onto injury: not only are prisoners being used for partisan gain, but their home districts suffer as well. Or, put another way, not only are they little more than nominees with no chance at a statue, they're left without the coveted swag too.

Tags: Democracy, NY Reform, Redistricting

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